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Prediction for CME (2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-03-15T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8011/-1
CME Note: This CME is connected to the long duration C9.1 flare with start at 01:15 and peak at 02:13, flare is centered in AR 2297, large part of the filament W of AR is also erupting, bright post-flare arcade later in AR 2297
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-03-17T04:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67
Dst min. in nT: -223
Dst min. time: 2015-03-17T23:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-03-17T12:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-03-15T05:23Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 840
Longitude (deg): W030
Latitude (deg): S18
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Low to moderate confidence in timing with the likelihood that it will arrive later than the WSA ENLIL model suggests.
Space weather advisor: Andrew Sibley

Lead Time: 34.58 hour(s)
Difference: -7.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-03-15T17:30Z

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